Supply Trends
The total number of apartments available for sale from projects
that are currently active in Q3/2009 is around 1,000 units. The
majority of primary supply is concentrated in Tu Liem, Dong Da
and Hai Ba Trung districts.
Performance of the Primary Market (All Types), Q3/2009
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
The number of successful transactions in the overall primary
market in Q3/2009 was lower than the previous quarter. Only
around 400 apartment units sold in Q3/2009, accounting for
nearly 38 per cent of the primary market in comparison to 610
apartment units sold in Q2/2009. That is probably due to the
lack of diversification of products in this market.
The overall average primary asking price in Q3/2009 is about
US$1,830 per sq.m., which was an increase of 5.5 per cent
against Q2/2009.
The secondary market seems to have performed better than
Q2/2009. The average secondary asking price has increased in
all 12 studied districts, by 15.6 per cent on average against
Q2/2009. In this market, asking prices range from US$660 to
US$4,200 per sq.m
Housing demand from speculators was still low in Q3/2009 due
to the rapid recovery of the stock market in the second quarter
and its continued growth during the third quarter of 2009. This
has caused investors to focus on the stock market rather than
the property market.
Outlook
From Q4/2009 up to 2012, it is estimated that at least 10,000
apartments will be launched onto the market, about 34 per
cent in Tu Liem District and 30 per cent in Cau Giay District.
Despite difficult short-term domestic economic conditions, the
strong fundamentals supporting residential property demand
in Hanoi should persist. However, delays and cancellations in
implementing projects may reduce forecast supply.
The primary market in Q4/2009 is expected to receive nearly
2,000 units of new supply.
Future Supply by District, Q4/2009 - 2012
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Savills believes that Q4/2009 will see little or no change in
primary asking prices of apartments of all grades compared to
Q3/2009. However, prices and performance in the secondary
market may be affected by the enforcement of personal
income tax levied on real property transfers since the end of
September 2009.
Demand Trends
Current demand in Q3/2009 in Hanoi has not met with supply.
Only about 435 apartments were sold in the primary market and
the upward trend on prices in the secondary market against
Q2/2009 had a definite impact on buyers’ decisions.